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Remember how people thought 2026 would bring calm oil markets with plenty of supply? Well, think again. Traders are rushing to hedge their positions amid surging US-Iran tensions, which are driving prices higher in what's already the most volatile year opening since 2022.

It started with surprise supply disruptions and sanctions that overturned forecasts of a surplus. By early February, oil prices climbed above $67 a barrel for the first time in months, due to fears of US strikes on Iran.

President Donald Trump has been eyeing fresh actions in a region that handles about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Add in Venezuela's geopolitical issue. A second US aircraft carrier group steaming toward the Middle East, stalled talks between Washington and Tehran, and Iran's anti-government protests back in January.

Iran even announced brief military drills that could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil shipments.

Record trading volumes surged in late January as investors rushed to secure prices, fearing disruptions from Iranian crude and extra Venezuelan barrels flooding the US Gulf Coast.

This isn't just trader talk, it could mean higher gas prices for all of us if things escalate.

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