HiveComb

For years, one of the main reasons for not resorting to tough-on-crime policies against organized crime has been to avoid an escalation of unimaginable and unruly consequences for society, given the firepower and high levels of comprehensive social disruption that gangs and cartels can generate. This undermining of social order can be direct—for example, when they implement roadblocks or attack businesses—, or indirect, when, ultimately, their ruthless internal struggles intervene and breach social peace.

For the moment, the Mexican government seems to have quelled the bloody reaction of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG in Spanish) following the death of its kingpin, alias El Mencho, last Sunday. For example, the economy has returned to normal in Jalisco—the losses in just a few hours were substantial—, and in-person classes will resume tomorrow at the University of Guadalajara, the state capital.

But there is a very serious concern in the air about the response that cartels like the CJNG could unleash in the context of the World Cup, given that Mexico is responsible for three host cities, one of which is precisely Guadalajara. "I don't think they should host the World Cup here," a Guadalajara citizen said to AP. "We have so many problems, and they want to invest in the World Cup? With all the violence, it's not a good idea." The state governor has stated that FIFA has assured him "[there is] no intention of removing any venues from Mexico."

Yet, undoubtedly, the events of Sunday have repercussions, and naturally, some pressure is emerging from abroad. The Portuguese football federation has said they are monitoring the "delicate situation" in Aztec lands very closely; in a month, they will disembark there to hold a friendly match against the Mexican national team. Beyond official statements ensuring everything will be fine, if the cartels want to crash the party, things can happen, on a smaller or larger scale.

Rubio at CARICOM

The head of Foggy Bottom will travel tomorrow to St. Kitts and Nevis to participate in the 50th Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), where he hopes to advance the interests of an administration highly concentrated and occupied with designing and building a Western Hemisphere to its measure. The times are intrinsically ideal—the crisis of the left is very severe—, so with some pressure and direct involvement, both discursive and practical, results are coming.

In the midst of all this, the approach towards Cuba is a contentious point, as the Trump team has already made some inroads against the Island, like never before, in the 15-member regional trade bloc. The main goal in this regard is to achieve the removal of Cuban doctors deployed in the region. The Republican narrative is that the terms of their hiring amount to a sort of modern slavery, largely because the Cuban government appropriates most of the income allocated per doctor.

In truth, this was an important source of external income for Cuba until the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro at the Palácio do Planalto, who cut a contract that generated an impressive spillover effect in the Caribbean economy. Thus, I don't think these so-called missions in small Caribbean and Central American nations represent anything strategic or economically significant. Yet their termination represents an important symbolic sign of the change of era produced by the Trump effect.

"We must address the situation in Cuba with clarity and courage. Cuba is our Caribbean neighbor. Its doctors and teachers have served throughout our region. We must be clear that a prolonged crisis in Cuba will affect migration, security, and economic stability across the Caribbean region," said Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness this Tuesday. However, he also aimed at the Cuban political regime by stating that "Jamaica is firmly in favor of democracy, human rights, political accountability, and an open market-based economy." "We do not believe that long-term stability can exist where economic freedom is restricted and political participation limited," he elaborated on the matter, although he also promoted negotiations between Havana and Washington to ease the bilateral political crisis, which is probably at its most problematic moment since the Missile Crisis.

Venezuela

These are new times for sure 👇

From the SOTU address 👇. No mention of Cuba in the long, time record-breaking discourse.

Source for the cover photo.